Hello friends,
This time last week, I was afraid that writing about open war was overreacting. But since then, more than one thousand people have died, most of them in Iran, including 150 schoolgirls in their classrooms. We think that the school in Minab was destroyed by the US: we know that a ship thousands of miles from the conflict zone was. As the violence expands and the rules of engagement are shredded, it’s hard to disentangle my horror regarding how we got here from my fear about where we’re going.

This newsletter is about science and higher education. Our goal is to stay focused, not flooded. So do we focus on the environmental and human tragedy? The imminent energy crisis? The potential for economic disaster? The answer is yes. It is all connected. We are all connected: the children are always ours.

This was Year 2, Week 10.

What happened in science & higher ed

• The administration says it is revoking certification of the union representing some 5,000 early career NIH workers, on the grounds that they are not technically employees because they are hired on multiyear research grants. This specific argument is new, but the move is part of a large-scale, ongoing attempt to undercut federal employee union protections.
• There’s new polling that contrasts public confidence in career scientists at agencies like NIH, CDC, FDA with lower confidence in those agency’s leadership. That distinction matters when we talk about things like FDA progress on drug review. Much of the focus is on how departures and leadership changes are impacting treatment for cancers and rare diseases. The agency was in the headlines for its chaos earlier this week. It is not coincidental that news broke today that Vinay Prasad is leaving the FDA (again). I find KFF’s analysis very useful here: remember that health policy decisions between now and November are more overtly political than ever, because of the midterms.
• For months, I’ve argued that Congressional budget numbers were important, but only the beginning of the battle. Here’s more demonstration of exactly why that is:
  • We are now 30 days past when the president signed the budget, but OMB has not yet authorized NIH to spend its Congressionally-approved budget (beyond salaries). It looks like NIH funding is now contingent on earning OMB approval of an unusually detailed spend plan. This delay, on top of the long government shut down, makes it harder for NIH to spend down its budget. If it can’t, that money goes back to the treasury. The latest analysis shows that NIH has made 840 new and competing awards so far this fiscal year: less than a third of what we would expect at this point.
  • Since January 2025, the NIH has only posted 84 funding opportunities (NOFOs), compared to more than 750 the year before. More than 300 that seem to be pending, some of which have been languishing since 2024. There is reasonable a case to be made for fewer, broader NOFOs, but at least one previous NIH director says that NIH institutes will further struggle to spend down their budgets with so few NOFOs.
  • And finally, new analysis of the NIH databook reveals a truly shocking dropoff in success for the highest-rated proposals in 2025. Just putting your head down and doing excellent work is no protection against this.

And what’s next

This weekend, Stand Up for Science is hosting rallies around the country. It’s hard to believe it’s already been a year since the first one. The next No Kings protests are happening on March 28, and are expected to become the largest mobilization in American history.

Protest is never the only option. This week I’m feeling especially inspired by a volunteer rapid response team of doctors providing at-home care for those who cannot risk getting abducted en route to clinics in Minneapolis. It’s quite different, but I’m really excited about the ‘Science Sunday in the Library’ events we are spinning up this spring in Seattle (more on that soon!). Closer to home, I’m grateful for an upcoming neighbor-to-neighbor teach-in here in Oakland. Wherever we are, whatever capacity we have–we need each other. We’re all connected.

I can’t believe it’s March already, and tomorrow night, Daylight Savings Time begins again.
No time like the present, right? Forward, together.
Liz

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